Polls Polls and more Polls
This is an intresting bit of info which might shed some light on the variance in recent polls. Here are a listing of polls conducted on October 19, 2000.
ABC 10/19 48% BUSH 43% GORE
Gallup 10/19 50% BUSH 40% GORE
Opinion Dynamics 10/19 45%BUSH 42% GORE
Now at first glance you might surmise that the polls got it right, BUSH WON! Well....you'd be wrong, these are polls of the general public, they measure the popular vote. I think we all remember how that worked out. To put this in persepective, two weeks before the election in 2000, GALLUP, one of the most reputable polling agencies was more then ten points off the mark. A majority of the rest of the field followed suit.
Polling is not an exact science. Not at all.
posted by ian @ 3:57 PM
1 comments
1 Comments:
Amen, brotha. I just added a blog by a polling methodologist to my Blogroll. Horserace Blog or something like that. He's a conservative and, in my opinion, gives too much credit to the Bush/Cheney campaign, but his insights into the validity of the poll numbers are interesting.
Further, since something seems to be wrong with the last post on the page, let me comment here. (It cuts off in the middle of a sentence with no comment link.) It would've been great if we could have gotten an Arab country to join us, but we simply couldn't. I challenge you to tell me how anyone, especially John Kerry, could have gotten an Arab country to join us and which one we could have gotten.
Further, the most useful parallel is not to the Gulf War (in which GHWB only got participation from many countries on the explicit promise that we would NOT depose Saddam), but to Korea -- which Sen. Kerry holds up as an example of how to run a war. For that, read my post of Oct. 25. http://www.gleefulextremist.com/2004/10/definition-of-multinational-force-in.html
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