Wednesday, October 06, 2004

BOOYAKASHAA!!

CBS gives Edwards a clear victory.

"CBS News tracked the reactions to tonight's vice-presidential debate of a nationwide panel of 169 uncommitted voters - voters who could change their minds before Election Day. Here are the initial results. This scientific poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points:
By 41% to 29%, uncommitted debate watchers say Edwards won the debate tonight."

ABC gives the edge to Cheney.

Intresting side note, Bush supporters will point the following poll as evidence that their man won the debate... but a quick look at the internal numbers turn that notion on its head.

"ABC News poll, 509 interviews +/- 4.5

Who won? (among debate viewers)

Cheney 43%
Edwards 35%
Tie 19%

Vote preference among debate viewers Before the debate,

Bush/Cheney 51%
Kerry/Edwards 50%

After Debate

Kerry/Edwards 49%
Bush/Cheney 48%

Party ID of debate viewersDemocrats
31% Democrats
38 % Republicans
27 % Independents

So after the debate, even though some voters thought Cheney won, they were more likely to vote for Kerry. I will take this outcome ten times out of ten.

In many ways this poll confirms my initial thoughts regarding the debate last night.

Overall, I thought Dick Cheney did quite well, and clearly has a firm grasp of policy which was evident throughout the debate. Stylistically he didn't do much to change the preconceived notions surrounding his "darth vader" like demeanor. He looked dodgy, irritable, and petulant.

But I also thought John Edwards did quite well. I didn't think that he suffered from what many pundits labeled a "gravitas" problem. He stood up on his own two feet and effectively critiqued this administration’s failures over the last four years. My favorite part in the debate was when Edwards blindsided Cheney with a litany of votes he had cast while serving in the House of Representatives. We don't get to hear about CHENEY's voting record too often, it was like a breath of fresh air...

Which brings me to my overall take on who will benefit from last nights debate. I think, as these polls have displayed, that unlike last Thursday’s Presidential debate, its impossible to declare a clear victor; however, I strongly believe the Democrats will benefit much more than their Republican counterparts from this debate in the long run, and here's why.

I don't think Cheney's performance will win over a lot of undecided voters, regardless of whether or not they thought he won the debate. Last night Cheney spoke to Republican believers, he was preaching to the choir. He didn't come off as especially likable, and contrary to what some talking heads are saying, I don't think he landed many punches on Edwards or Kerry for that matter. One of his best lines has already been discredited on this site, and will be discredited all over the news for the next two days along with many of his other statements. Cheney denied things he has undoubtedly stated in the past. I.E. Connections between Iraq and 9-11.(check back later for post on this) Our Vice-President has a credibility problem, plain and simple, last night is only going to pour salt on it...

Senator Edwards’ down home charm served him well last night, and I think he reached out to a portion of the American electorate that Kerry is unable to. He spoke plainly and eloquently about healthcare, the economy, and Iraq. He repeatedly took aim at Cheney's credibility problem. I think much of what he stated was specifically targeted at undecided voters timid about facing another four years of BUSH/CHENEY. In my humble/biased opinion I don't think we could have asked for anything more from Senator Edwards.

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